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Nepa

Nepa

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Nepa AB is a marketing intelligence company combining survey data, sales data, and marketing investment analysis to help global brands optimise their short- and long-term growth. Its core offerings span brand tracking, campaign evaluation, and continuous media mix modelling, delivered via proprietary dashboards, with operations spanning the Nordics, UK, US, and India.

Nepa faces customer concentration risk, with its five largest clients representing ~24% of net sales, alongside dependence on qualified personnel and its ability to manage growth. Market-related risks include customer budget sensitivity affecting demand and competitive pressure from technology-driven DIY/SaaS research alternatives and AI-driven alternatives.

Financials

SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 222,6 214,51 232,43
Sales growth (%) -17,1 -3,6 8,4
EBITDA -15 6 15
EBITDA margin (%) -6,6 2,9 6,4
EBIT adj. -19 -7 6
EBIT adj. margin (%) -8,5 -3,1 2,5
Pretax profit -33 -6 6
EPS -4,33 -0,92 0,79
EPS growth (%) N/A -78,7 N/A
EPS adj. -3,01 -0,92 0,79
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EV/EBITDA (x) -8,1 18,4 6,7
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -6,3 -17,6 17,1
P/E (x) N/A N/A 21,61
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 21,6
EV/sales (x) 0,54 0,54 0,43
FCF yield (%) -12,6 3,2 12
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -12,6 3,2 12
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 1,3 -3,7 -2,6
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) 3,1 -3 -2,3
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Sales 222,6 214,51 232,43
COGS -55 -51 -55
Gross profit 167 163 177
Other operating items -182 -157 -163
EBITDA -15 6 15
Depreciation and amortisation -14 -13 -9
Depreciation on leased assets N/A N/A N/A
EBITA -28,88 -6,55 5,79
Operating EO items -10 0 0
Impairment and amortisation charges 0 0 0
EBIT -28,88 -6,55 5,79
Net financial items -4 1 0
Pretax profit -33 -6 6
Tax -1 -2 0
Net profit -34 -7 6
Minority interest N/A N/A N/A
Net profit discontinued N/A N/A N/A
Net profit to shareholders -34 -7 6
EPS -4,33 -0,92 0,79
EPS adj. -3,01 -0,92 0,79
Total extraordinary items after tax -10 0 0
Leasing payments 0 0 0
Tax rate (%) -3,8 -29,4 0
Gross margin (%) 75,2 76,2 76,3
EBITDA margin (%) -6,6 2,9 6,4
EBITA margin (%) -13 -3,1 2,5
EBIT margin (%) -13 -3,1 2,5
Pre-tax margin (%) -14,7 -2,6 2,7
Net margin (%) -15,3 -3,4 2,7
Year N/A N/A N/A
Sales growth (%) -17,1 -3,6 8,4
EBITDA growth (%) -214,8 -142,2 137,3
EBITA growth (%) 803,6 -77,3 -188,4
EBIT growth (%) N/A -77,3 -188,4
Net profit growth (%) 1213,8 -78,7 -185,4
EPS growth (%) N/A -78,7 N/A
ROE (%) -62,9 -24,5 21,5
ROE adj. (%) -43,7 -24,5 21,5
ROCE (%) -52,2 -7,6 34
ROCE adj. (%) -33,7 -7,6 34
ROIC (%) -126,8 -96,4 -261,3
ROIC adj. (%) -82,9 -96,4 -261,3
EBITDA adj. -5 6 15
EBITDA adj. margin (%) -2,1 2,9 6,4
EBITDA lease adj. -5 6 15
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) -2,1 2,9 6,4
EBITA adj. -19 -7 6
EBITA adj. margin (%) -8,5 -3,1 2,5
EBIT adj. -19 -7 6
EBIT adj. margin (%) -8,5 -3,1 2,5
Pretax profit Adj. -23 -6 6
Net profit Adj. -24 -7 6
Net profit to shareholders adj. -24 -7 6
Net adj. margin (%) -10,6 -3,4 2,7
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Goodwill N/A N/A N/A
EBITDA -15 6 15
Other intangible assets 28 15 6
Net financial items -4 1 0
Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Paid tax 1 -3 0
Right-of-use asset N/A N/A N/A
Non-cash items 3 -1 0
Other Fixed Assets All 4 4 4
Cash flow before change in WC -15 4 15
Fixed assets 32 20 11
Change in working capital 1 1 1
Inventories N/A N/A N/A
Operating cash flow -14 4 16
Receivables 39 38 40
Capex tangible fixed assets 0 0 0
Other current assets 13 14 14
Capex intangible fixed assets -3 0 0
Cash and liquid assets 15 19 35
Acquisitions and Disposals 0 0 0
Total assets 98 90 99
Free cash flow -17 4 16
Shareholders equity 34 26 32
Dividend paid -10 0 0
Minority N/A N/A N/A
Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0
Total equity 34 26 32
Leasing liability amortisation N/A N/A N/A
Long-term debt 0 0 0
Other changes in net debt 3 0 0
Pension debt N/A N/A N/A
Convertible debt N/A N/A N/A
Leasing liability 0 0 0
Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0
Short-term debt N/A N/A N/A
Accounts payable 10 10 10
Other current liabilities 55 54 57
Total liabilities and equity 98 90 99
Net IB debt -19 -23 -39
Net IB debt excl. pension debt -19 -23 -39
Net IB debt excl. leasing -19 -23 -39
Capital employed 34 26 32
Capital invested 15 3 -7
Working capital -13 -13 -14
Market cap. diluted (m) 134 134 134
Net IB debt adj. -15 -19 -35
Market value of minority 0 0 0
Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0
Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity N/A N/A N/A
EV 119 115 99
Total assets turnover (%) 173,6 227,8 246,2
Working capital/sales (%) -5,2 -6,1 -5,7
Year N/A N/A N/A
Net debt/equity (%) -55,7 -89,5 -122,3
Net debt / market cap (%) -14 -17,2 -29,1
Equity ratio (%) 34,1 28,5 32,2
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) -43,2 -73,1 -109,1
Current ratio 1,02 1,09 1,32
EBITDA/net interest 3,8 6,6 37
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) 1,3 -3,7 -2,6
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) 3,1 -3 -2,3
Interest coverage 6,2 0,7 2,7
SEKm 2025 2026e 2027e
Shares outstanding adj. 8 8 8
Diluted shares adj. 8 8 8
EPS -4,33 -0,92 0,79
Dividend per share 0 0 0
EPS adj. -3,01 -0,92 0,79
BVPS 4,27 3,26 4,05
BVPS adj. 0,72 1,32 3,25
Net IB debt/share -1,85 -2,38 -4,42
Share price 17 17 17
Market cap. (m) 134 134 134
P/E (x) N/A N/A 21,61
EV/sales (x) 0,54 0,54 0,43
EV/EBITDA (x) -8,1 18,4 6,7
EV/EBITA (x) -4,1 -17,6 17,1
EV/EBIT (x) -4,1 -17,6 17,1
Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0
FCF yield (%) -12,6 3,2 12
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) -12,6 3,2 12
P/BVPS (x) 3,98 5,21 4,2
P/BVPS adj. (x) 23,53 12,85 5,23
P/E adj. (x) N/A N/A 21,6
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) -25 18,4 6,7
EV/EBITA adj. (x) -6,3 -17,6 17,1
EV/EBIT adj. (x) -6,3 -17,6 17,1
EV/CE (x) 3,5 4,5 3,1
Year N/A N/A N/A
Capex/sales (%) -1,4 0 0
Capex/depreciation 0,2 0 0
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed assets 2,1 16,2 0
Capex intangibles / definite intangibles 11,4 0 0
Depreciation on intang / def. intang 50 83 144
Depreciation on tangibles / tangibles 65,45 29,76 0

Equity research

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Main shareholders -

Main shareholders Share capital % Voting shares % Verified
Hanover Investors 19.3 % 19.3 % 26 Jun 2026
Ulrich Boyer med närstående 18.4 % 18.4 % 26 Jun 2026
Elementa Management 15.9 % 15.9 % 26 Jun 2026
Olle Jakobsson 6.2 % 6.2 % 26 Jun 2026
Aktia Asset Management 4.7 % 4.7 % 26 Jun 2026
Göran Nordlund (Fore C Investments) 4.6 % 4.6 % 30 Jun 2026
Avanza Pension 3.9 % 3.9 % 26 Jun 2026
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.6 % 2.6 % 26 Jun 2026
Björn Nordenborg 1.7 % 1.7 % 26 Jun 2026
Jens Kristian Jepsen 1.2 % 1.2 % 26 Jun 2026
Source: Holdings by Modular Finance AB